Yet another week ends with the world dealing with the Coronavirus.

Move into a ‘Permanent’ Abode

From a personal perspective, this has been a big week.  For the first time since May 2012, I am now living a ‘fixed place of abode’.  I have taken a 3 month lease a unit on the Brisbane River in the suburb of New Farm.

The unit is very small, but it is ideal for me.  It is fully furnished, including a TV and vacuum cleaner.  It doesn’t have a balcony, but it does have a great view of the Storey Bridge and the CBD.  It is close to cycle paths and the New Farm Park.  There is a shopping centre about one kilometre away and the there are lots of cafes and restaurants in the area.   

I am pleased to be in Brisbane at this time.

Things are Getting Better in Australia

As far of the virus is concerned, it appears that Australia is starting to get it under control.  The number of new cases has been steadily declining across the country.  This is particularly pleasing to see in NSW which has been the hardest hit State.

Given the reduced number of cases, all of States and territories are starting to relax some of the restrictions on movements and the operations of businesses.

Confusion over Schools

One area that appears to very confused is schools.  The Federal Government, Morrison in particular, appears to be very keen for the schools to start operating as ‘normal’.

He is basing his comments on ‘expert’ advice which apparently says that there is no evidence of children becoming ill with coronavirus and there is limited risk of teachers becoming infected.

It seems that the States and Territories don’t necessarily agree.  There has been a study in NSW that does indicate something along those lines.  The NSW government in planning a phased re-opening of schools with revised arrangements, for example staggered school hours. It seems that schools will essentially remain closed in Victoria for the next term.  South Australia and Western Australia seem to be keener on schools opening.

It is all very confusing and must be a problem for both parents and students.

Trump

One of the features of Trump’s ‘presidency’ has been his ability to constantly surprise everyone with his level of stupidity and ignorance.  I won’t even bother giving past examples before this crisis.

In previous posts on the coronavirus, I have mentioned Trump and his incompetence and ill-informed comments including his advocacy of the use of a malaria drug as a treatment for the virus.

On the 23^rd of April Trump gave his most bizarre White House Briefing yet.

An official from the Homeland Security Department was ask to speak about some research  the Department had undertaken.  The official is not a scientist.

The official talked about research that showed the impact of heat and light, and disinfectants on the coronavirus.  It showed that both heat and light killed that virus when it was in the air.  It also showed that disinfectants, such as bleach killed the virus when is on surfaces.

Once he heard this, Trump started ‘spit balling’ about the possibility of using light and disinfectants “inside the body” against the virus.

Of course, this provoked almost universal uproar and condemnation.

To make matters worse, Trump tried to counter the criticism by claiming that he was simply being sarcastic.  This was obviously a lie.  

It was interesting to note that Trump cut his next briefing short and refused to take any questions.

This episode may be a pivotal point in Trump’s political career.  I know that has been said before, however this is really a ‘Biggy’.

Impacts on Business

The coronavirus crisis is having a huge impact on the economy.  There are forecasts going around that the economy will be suffer bigger declines than were experienced in the Great Depression in the 1930’s.  

One thing can already said;  that is that the increase in unemployment, certainly in the advanced countries like the USA, UK and Australia has been far more rapid than was the case in the 1930’s. In the Great Depression,  the peak in unemployment was in 1935, fully 6 years after the initial stock market crash.

In this economic down turn, the impact of the loss of jobs has largely been mitigated by government intervention with wage subsidies and increases in unemployment benefits.  It is still yet to be seen how long this government largess will last and whether it will be enough.  

Virgin Airlines

There has however, been a high-profile business casualty in Australia.  That casualty  is Virgin Airlines.  The company is almost completely owned by overseas shareholders including Singapore Airlines, and Chinese and Middle Eastern interests. The founder of the Virgin Group, Richard Branson only owns 10 percent of the airline.

The board of Virgin Airline Australia decided to put the company into voluntary administration.

There is no doubt that other businesses in the transport and tourism industries are going to struggle to survive this crisis.

Tracing App

Last night, Sunday the 26^th of April, the Australian government released an ‘app’ to assist with the tracing of people that may have become in contact with people with the virus.

This is somewhat controversial.  There are overtones of ‘Big Brother’ in the use of such technology. 

I have decided to download that the app, notwithstanding the fact that the government has been less than completely transparent about how it works and the privacy safeguards.  I would have preferred that it was that subject and specific piece of legislation and independent oversight.

Australia v NZ

In a previous post, I talked about the approach New Zealand is taking with respect to the coronavirus.   They are going for total eradication.

This can be contrasted will Australia’s less rigorous approach.  There is a program on ABC TV tonight about how that two countries are going.  It will make interesting viewing.

Links

Photos and Videos of My Unit

https://flic.kr/s/aHsmML1nAx

Trump’s ‘Disinfectant’ White House Briefing

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-suggests-injection-disinfectant-beat-coronavirus-clean-lungs-n1191216?fbclid=IwAR05B8OCaLc3lQnNsFniyzX31yv_KUtrTTHxgDSewsusG0psYS78HCL3iGs

The GOP getting Nervous

Trump trying to Deny what he Said

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/26/politics/trump-briefings-media-blame-disinfectant-comments/index.html?fbclid=IwAR1iEfZyx5yLfxuFOPocDz5F2XJy9SbSlJK159c7l7Yc-ERUHZngAInLuJk

The Approaches taken in Australia and NZ Compared

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-27/has-new-zealand-done-better-than-australia-on-coronavirus/12182254?fbclid=IwAR169HnUilV4JM3RPGshBNxtKmQOJcVxcyUD-cMLwlFo9x7zbRhBpojcibk

The Australian Government’s Tracing App

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-26/coronavirus-tracing-app-covidsafe-australia-government-covid-19/12186130?fbclid=IwAR2url31di3O5WCired2uxTV-sP48FMvlajOCurLRfchq5ShQLB1h2GW7W4

We are at the end of another week of the coronavirus crisis.

My ‘permanent’ Accommodation Sorted

 On a personal note, I have sorted out my accommodation here in Brisbane.  It is a one-bedroom unit in the suburb of New Farm on the Brisbane river.  I move in next week.

The process was interesting. I had to provide references. This process  was somewhat different to the norm given that I have effectively been of ‘no fixed abode’ since May of 2012. The letting agent had not experienced this before. Fortunately, I was able for provide suitable referees, one of whom’s wife rightfully claims credit for “my excellent vacuuming skills”.  The comments on my skills caused great amusement in the letting agent’s office.

I am looking forward to a ‘long term’ stay in Brisbane.  It will enable me to do a lot of the reading, some blogging, lots of listening to music. It will also give the opportunity to watch some movies and TV shows. In my peripatetic lifestyle I do not have many opportunities to watch either. Most of my movie watching happens on long-haul flights. I occasionally watch TV when I am in London and in hotel rooms.  I have subscribed to net streaming service and will have NBN broadband in the unit.

Countries Looking Ahead

As I post this, events related to the virus are still moving fast. The USA is increasing its lead in both the number of cases and the death toll.

In the UK, things seem to be stabilising but are still pretty grim.

In parts of Asia, including China and Singapore there is evidence of an emerging ‘second’ wave of inflections.  Things are not looking good in Japan.  

In Europe, some countries are looking to ease restrictions in movements.   

When Does It Stop?

The answer to this is simple.  When people cease to catch the virus and pass it to someone.  At that point, the virus effectively dies out.

The problem is that it is not a simple matter to get to that point. It may take years or decades. Look how long it took the eradicate smallpox. It took centuries, and it required the use of a vaccine.

There is no certainty that a vaccine will ever be developed for this virus. Further, there no certainty that it will be entirely effective, and that sufficient people will be inoculated to completely stop the transmission of the disease.

R0 is Important

The experts are telling us about a  key concept that needs be understood with respect to the spread of the disease.  This concept is ‘R0’.

“Scientists use R0 – the reproduction number – to describe the intensity of an infectious disease outbreak. R0 estimates have been an important part of characterising pandemics or large publicised outbreaks, including the 2003 SARS pandemic, the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic and the 2014 Ebola epidemic in West Africa.

It’s something epidemiologists are racing to nail down about coronavirus.

The formal definition of a disease’s R0 is the number of cases, on average, an infected person will cause during their infectious period.

If R0 is less than 1, the disease will die out in a population, because on average an infectious person will transmit to fewer than one other susceptible person. On the other hand, if R0 is greater than 1, the disease will spread”.

So the trick is to get the R0 for this virus below 1.  Without any intervention it is thought to be certainly above 1 and possibly as high as 2.5.

 Different Strategies Emerging

At the moment, it can’t be assumed that the vaccine will be developed anytime soon.  Certainly, not for at least 12 to 18 months.

In the face of that reality, various strategies seem to be emerging.

The New Zealand Way

The NZ government is going for ‘eradication’. The intension of this strategy is to get rid of the virus as soon as possible. In the absence of a vaccine, this is achieved by rigid ‘lockdown’ protocols.

The first of these is cutting the country off from international travel except for exceptional circumstances e.g. NZ nationals returning home or aircraft crew flying planes carrying essential freight.

The next step is to limit internal movements within the country. People are required to stay in their home cities and towns.

Most crucially, there is strict ‘social distancing’. This involves people staying at home as much as possible. It also means any interaction is limited to family members where possible. Shops, restaurants, and cafes are closed unless they are essential e.g. pharmacies, supermarkets and places selling take way food. People are required to work from home wherever possible.

Another aspect of the ‘social distancing’ is the requirement that people stay apart from each other by at least 2 meters.

As I write this, the strategy appears to be working. There are 1,422 confirmed or probable cases of the virus and these only increased by 13 in last 24 hours. It would appear that the country is on track to achieving zero transmissions.  If that is achieved and sustained, the virus will die out.

Swedish Approach

The Swedish approach is generally thought to be at the other extreme compared to the one New Zealand is taking, at least among rich countries.

The Swedish government have closed senior high schools and banned gatherings of more than 50 people.  They have asked – rather than ordered – people to avoid non-essential travel, work from home.  People over 70 have been asked to stay indoors.  That request also applies to anyone will flu like symptoms.

This has been described as a ‘light-touch’ approach’.

“Polling suggests many Swedes continue to support the government’s strategy, which has entailed urging citizens to take personal responsibility for following physical distancing guidelines rather than strictly enforcing mandatory rules”.

Statistics show roughly half the Swedish workforce is now working from home, public transport usage has fallen by 50% in Stockholm and the capital’s streets are about 70% less busy than usual.  However, peoples are still able to shop, go to restaurants, get haircuts and send children under 16 to school even if a family member is ill.

“However, Sweden has passed the grim milestone of 1,200 coronavirus deaths, far exceeding the tolls of its nearest neighbours”.

Nevertheless, “Anders Tegnell, the country’s chief epidemiologist, has described the Swedish approach as an attempt to ensure “a slow spread of infection and that the health services are not overwhelmed”, arguing that it is important for a part of the population to acquire immunity.

The chief epidemiologist has repeatedly stressed that the world is in uncharted territory with the coronavirus, arguing that while Sweden might have more infections in the short term, it will not face the risk of a huge infection increase that many other countries might face once their strict lockdowns are lifted.

Problems with both Strategies

It seems that the Swedish approach is based on an acceptance that, in the absence of a vaccine, the only way for people to become immune to the virus is to catch it and recover. If sufficient people become immune to the virus, this is thought to be 60-70% of the population, the R0 will drop below 1.  Very quickly following that, the virus will die out.

A big issue will this approach is that many vulnerable people will die if they catch the virus.

Also, it is assumed people who have the recovered from the virus will have immunity to it. Apparently, that is normally what happens with coronaviruses.  However, this is yet to be confirmed in the case of this virus.  

The problem with the New Zealand approach is that people will not gain any immunity to the disease.  It is all very well to eradicate the disease in the New Zealand. However, it is likely that it will still be infecting people around the world for months, if not years to come.

To stay disease free, New Zealand will have to cut itself off from the infected parts of the world until the virus  is eradicated on a global scale.  If infected people were to travel to New Zealand, and were not properly quarantined, they would likely introduce the disease into country. ‘Back to square one’.  

Is there a Middle Road?

Question that appears to be being asked around the world is whether there is a ‘middle road’ between the approaches being taken in New Zealand and Sweden.

It appears the Australia is looking to one.

 The strategy is ‘cautious relaxation’.

Firstly, this requires a sustained drop in transmission rates.  When this occurs some the restriction may be relaxed. For example, schools reopen. Some people, possibly younger people are allowed to return to work.

It will also require strict monitoring to detect any spread of the virus.  This will include widespread testing of people to see if they have the disease, with or without symptoms.  There will also be testing for people with antibodies.  These people will have had the disease and will have recovered.

There is also a need for ‘contact tracing’.  That is a process where anyone who has come into contract will the disease in traced.  They will be tested and if necessary, they will be placed into isolation.

There is discussion going about the possible use of mobile phone apps to assist in this ‘contact tracing’ process.  This technology has been used in Singapore and South Korea.  There definitely privacy and data security concerns with this approach.  It does have ‘Big Brother’ overtones.

Whatever approach Australia decides to take,  social distancing and washing of hands will stay. They are part of our new life, along with extremely limited overseas travel until a vaccine is developed and used globally.

A shemozzle in the USA

As you would expect, things are not going well in the USA.

The reason for this of course, their President. 

He continues to get worse.   It pains me to even think about.  I will keep it brief.

On the 16^th of April, the White House issued ‘Coronavirus Guidelines for America’.  They are contained in a 16 page document.  This far to big a document for Trump to read, let alone understand.

Essentially, it puts the onus of the State Governors to manage the way out of the current crisis.  For example, they are to decide when ‘lockdown’ restrictions are to be lifted.  The States will also be responsible for managing risk mitigation measures such as testing.

Around the time that the guidelines were issued, demonstrations began in certain States including Michigan, Minnesota and Virginia demanding the ‘social distancing’ restrictions be lifted.   Trump sent out tweets in support of these protests.  These States have Democrat Governors.  The protestors were obviously ‘right wingers’.

The simple fact is that the Governors of  those states were following the White House Guidelines.

Trump is encouraging people to disobey his own guidelines.   

Explanation of R0

https://theconversation.com/r0-how-scientists-quantify-the-intensity-of-an-outbreak-like-coronavirus-and-predict-the-pandemics-spread-130777

NZ Coronavirus Statistics

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases

Swedish Approach

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/sweden-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-1000

ANU Professor’s View

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/neither-sweden-nor-nz-australia-must-steer-its-own-covid-19-course-20200417-p54ku0.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed

Laura Tingle 18^th April

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-18/coronavirus-threat-slows-pm-hints-return-to-policy-ideology/12159628?fbclid=IwAR3x8ekYJ7ow8V_SH1u71jewiNLp4UM37GouVnXgga-SsTWyWIAVe87mP0Q

Paul Kelly 18^th April

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/coronavirus-the-keys-to-restart-the-nations-engine/news-story/938d032b6f981643d095338d1186a43f

White House Guidelines 16^th April

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/coronavirus-guidelines-america/

Trump inciting Disobedience to Governors following His Guidelines

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/18/opinions/trump-is-playing-with-fire-ghitis/index.html?fbclid=IwAR3_onlY50YP3zmJ5HrGFWgyVvbOCI0JDfBgiOH8RSsE9hvgsBhmp7hYQds

It now Easter Monday and we at the start of another week of living with the impact the coronavirus.

Case Numbers and Death Toll

As I write this post, the USA is on the top of the table for both the number of cases and the number of deaths as a result of the coronavirus. 

Things seem to be stabilising in parts of Europe with the number of daily deaths falling in Italy and in Spain.  It seems that things are still getting worse in the UK. 

In China, some the restrictions that had been in place in Hubei Province where the virus started have been eased.

Here in Australia, the ‘social distancing’ and travel restrictions appear to be working.  The number of cases appears to have stabilised and there are very few deaths.

 More importantly, the vast majority of cases, and nearly all of the deaths, are related to people that caught the disease overseas.  There have been few ‘community’ transmissions.  That is, someone catches the disease from someone who also caught the disease within Australia.

Politicians’ Performances

The worst performing politician appears to the Brazilian President, Jair Bolsonaro.  He is in total denial.  This is of course a problem for the people of Brazil and its immediate neighbours.  However, this cannot be said for what is happening in the USA.

Trump’s Performance in the White House ‘Briefings’  

I have taken to watching the White House Briefings on the virus.  They start in the mornings AEST.  They can be seen on Fox News over the internet.  These briefings are fascinating.

The performances of the various participants are interesting to watch.

Trump’s performances are well documented. He struggles to read off his notes. When he is reading, he appears to not even understand what has been written for him.

He frequently goes ‘off script’ with ad lib comments that are often totally unrelated to the words that have been prepared for him to read. Frequently his own words are meaningless platitudes e.g. “we are doing a great job”.  Often he spouts outright drivel “a lot of people are dying who have never died before”.

When he is asked a question, he never responds with anything sensible. He frequently attacks the journalist asking the question. He almost invariably talks about ‘himself’, always in glowing terms. This frequently involves a demonstrable lie e.g. “I have always said this was going to be pandemic”.

Then there is vice president Pence and other Trump appointees e.g. Cabinet members. These people always begin their remarks by thanking “the president for his great leadership”. They always refer to decisions and initiatives they are responsible for as “the president’s decision” or something they are doing something at “the president’s direction”.

These performances are the epitome of what is to be a sycophant.

Fortunately, there is a third group. These are the real experts. They include Dr Anthony Fauci and Dr Deborah Birx.

These people are proving to be the consummate professionals. Their explanations are precise and considered. They are emphasising the importance of data and the use of analysis in decision making.

These people are clearly highly intelligent, competent and trustworthy.

The contrast between the doctors and Trump is profound. Trump is a moron. He is incompetent. He cannot be trusted.

Boris Johnson

On the 26^th of March it was announced that the UK Prime Minister had contracted the virus and was in isolation in number 10. On the 5^th of April he was admitted to St Thomas’s hospital.   The next day he moved into the intensive care unit (ICU).

This was all very serious stuff.  One of the interesting aspects of was that, no one took over as ‘acting’ Prime Minister in the absence of Johnson from Number 10.  There is no formal position of Deputy Prime Minister in the UK political system. There have been Deputy Prime Ministers in the past.  For example, during the period of the Conservative and Lib Dem Coalition government under David Cameron.

Under this government there is no such role.  Dominic Raab who is a bit of a dickhead and definitely a lightweight is ‘deputising for Johnson.

As expected, most people including members of the Opposition expressed concern for the plight of the Prime Minister and wished him a speedy recovery.  There was very little said about what a ‘dick’ he had been at the start of the crisis in the UK.

This included boasting about the fact that he had visited a hospital which people with the virus were being treated and that he has “shaken hands with members of the public and staff at the hospital”.

Fortunately, Johnson recovered enough to be taken out the ICU and was returned to a normal ward.  

Media Not Helping

I have posted before about Fox News’s disgraceful performance at the start of the crisis in the USA.  It ‘personalities’ downplayed the significance of the crisis.  This of course, played a significant role in how Trump reacted to the crisis and the things he has said.  This included claiming in an interview with Sean Hannity on the 24^th of March that he expected that the “churches could be full at Easter”.

One the most bizarre lines that Fox News is taking is its support for the use of a drug called hydroxychloroquine as a possible cure for the virus.

Trump has picked up on this and has been promoting its use himself.  The drug was originally developed as a treatment for malaria.  It has ceased to be widely used for this purpose but is now used for other maladies including Lupus.  There has been some suggestion that it ‘may’ relieve the symptoms of the coronavirus and possibly accelerate recovery from the disease.

The USA health officials, including Dr Fauci have noted that the reports on the possible benefits of the use of the drug are only anecdotal.  He has further stated that proper clinical trails need to be undertaken.  It seems that Fox News and other right-wingers are promoting the use of hydroxychloroquine as part of the ‘contrary’ view to the accepted science.

A very unfortunate development occurred on the 2^nd of April  when Dr Fauci was assigned security protection in response to threats from ‘right-wingers’. 

Conservatives Discover the Value of Big Government

There is one consistent theme that has emerged across most countries in the face of the coronavirus crisis.

That is this:

When there is a serious problem, people ask the government for help.

The irony is that many of the governments to whom people are turning are ‘conservative’ governments. Those governments are composed of parties that are not keen on governments having a role in their countries at all.

The obvious example is the USA.  The Republicans hate ‘government’.  They hate regulation. They want to deregulate.  In the context of this crisis they despise ‘socialised’ healthcare.  Remember that in their lexicon, ‘socialised’ is synonymous with ‘evil’.

In the UK, the Conservatives have presided over a decade of austerity wherein government expenditure was slashed.

In Australia, the coalition government that was initially ‘led’ by Tony Abbott (Australia’s leading living ‘dickhead’).   The LNP has been banging on about the need to get ‘back in black for a decade’.

Now that there is a crisis, everyone is turning to the government for help. They are getting it. The purse strings have been cut.

In the UK, if people are left unemployed as a result of the virus, they are being guaranteed up to 80% of the medium income. In Australia, similar government support is promised. In the USA, trillions have been promised.  However, no one really knows who will get it and why.

‘Experts’ Speculate on What will Happen Next

Over this Easter weekend there is a lot of speculation as to what will happen next.

It would appear that two camps are emerging.

To make it simple lets talk about Australia.  Australia’s situation is somewhat simple.  We have two clear choices.  This is because we are an island.  We can effectively close the country off from the rest of the world when it comes the movement of people.  There will be some but very few exceptions.

Australia is also unique in that there the instances of ‘community’ transmission of the virus have virtually ceased

These are the options:

Australia can effectively close itself off from the rest if the world

Under this scenario, there will be no threat of virus coming into the country.  Those currently in the country with the virus will get better or die.  The ‘social distancing’ regulations will mean that there are no more ‘community’ transmissions.

There will be very few people allowed into the country.  They will be returning Australian nationals and essential visitors e.g. diplomats and ex pat business people etc.

The result of this is that the virus will die out in Australia.

The downside will be that the tourism and educational sectors that rely on a constant stream of foreign visitors will be severely impacted.    

This arrangement will continue until the pandemic across the rest of the world in under control.  That will likely require the development and widespread use of a vaccine.  This may not happen for one year, eighteen months or possibly two years. In fact a vaccine may never be developed for this virus.

The other option is ‘let it rip’ with some controls

Under this scenario, it is accepted that the virus spreads through the community until we have ‘herd immunity.  That is when around sixty to seventy percent of the population have contracted the virus and are therefore immune to further infections.

There are issues with this.  The first is that it is assumed that once you have recovered from the disease, you can’t pass it to anyone else.  This appear to be likely.  The second is that once you have had the disease, you have enough antibodies that prevent you from getting it again, at least for a year or more.

The third issue is that a lot of people will get sick.  Many of these will probably get very ill.  They are the old and those with underlying medical issues like cancer and heart issues. Without hospital treatment including the use of ventilators, they will die.

It is possible that under this scenario the hospital system will be overwhelmed, and thousands will die.

An interesting week ahead

The next week will be interesting.  Clearly, governments around the world are considering various options on what to do next.

Naturally, attention will focus on our own governments – Federal, State and Territories.

However, the world will be looking at what happens in the USA. 

Unfortunately, what their mixture of what is a ‘dark comedy’ and horror show is certain to continue.

Personal Note

I am still in the Brisbane YHA.  It is not idea but it is ok.  I am getting plenty of exercise with walks and rides on the Brompton. 

I have found a flat in New Farm and plan to take residence there late next week.

Links

Fox News on Hydroxychloroqine 

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/sean-hannity-gov-cuomo-stop-denying-new-yorkers-hydroxychloroquine

Fox News Changing Tune

Brazilian President in Denial

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-04-09/brazils-president-refuses-to-admit-that-coronavirus-poses-a-real-threat-hes