It is now July and the coronavirus has been around for over six months.
I am still ‘stranded’ Brisbane. This is proving to be quiet a good place to be. There have been no ‘community’ infections in Queensland for over a month.
Developments in Victoria
The big story in Australia regarding the virus has been the outbreak that has occurred in Victoria.
On Monday the 22nd of June, the Victoria government announced that there had been a spike cases of the coronavirus in Melbourne.
The initial advice from the medical experts was that the evidence showed that the outbreak was related to large gatherings of family members in their own houses. As the days progressed, the number of cases slowly increased. These cases were occurring in specific hotspots in the north of the city. Two days ago, it was announced that lockdowns would be applied to certain suburbs.
It is now emerging that it appears that the cases relate to security staff that were working in the ‘quarantine’ hotels in the Melbourne CBD. These hotels are where travellers from overseas are housed for the 14 days as they are quarantined after arriving in Australia. The Victorian government engaged private security firms to control the movement people in and out the hotels.
It would appear that one or more of the staff employed by these firms has become infected with the virus. They in turn have infected members of their family. It would also appear that these transmissions took place at large family gatherings. It is also thought that these gathering include celebrations related to Eid which is a Muslim religious event.
Media Reaction
Of course, the developments in Victoria have resulted in a lots of criticism of the government and its Premier, especially from the right wing media. There have been a lot of comments along the lines that the ‘black lives matter’ (BLM) demonstrations were the cause of the outbreak. There is no evidence that this is the case.
There were BLM demonstrations in every capital city in every state and territory. Melbourne is the only city to suffer a spike in coronavirus cases. There is no evidence to suggest that the behaviour of the security staff and was influenced by the demonstrations.
As I publish this post, restrictions are being place on movement in ten Melbourne postcodes which are coronavirus hotspots. The premier has also flagged the possibility of imposing a lockdown for whole state.
The NSW government is telling residents of those ‘hotspots’ that they should not travel to NSW. I am not sure how that can be properly enforced. This call is also somewhat ironic given that the NSW Premier has been among the most vociferous when it comes to demanding that state borders should be opened.
Things getting out of control in the USA
On the international scene, the countries with right wing populist leaders continue to have the highest number of coronavirus cases and deaths. These are of course the USA, Brazil, Russia, the UK and India.
More than 48,000 coronavirus cases were announced across the United States last Tuesday, the most of any day of the pandemic. Officials in eight states — Alaska, Arizona, California, Georgia, Idaho, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Texas — also announced single-day highs.
Case counts have climbed sharply in many of the states that were the first to reopen, including Florida and Texas, which recently forced bars to close again.
Reports coming out of Texas are instructive. They are highlighting the fact that most of the cases are occurring in younger people between the ages of 18 and 40. These people consider themselves to be at limited, or no risk, of becoming seriously ill if they catch the virus.
In Texas, the bar closures spurred protests at the State Capitol and the governor’s mansion.
Trumps Tulsa Rally
In hindsight it is interesting to look back a couple of weeks:
Trump’s ‘comeback’ rally went ahead in Tulsa on the 21st of June
“Tulsa police said the protests outside the arena were largely peaceful.
Mr. Trump talked about slowing down testing for the coronavirus, echoing previous remarks that higher case numbers look bad.
He also continued to focus on testing and how case numbers have grown. “When you do testing to that extent, you’re going to find more people,” Mr. Trump said. “You’re going to find more cases. So I said to my people, ‘Slow the testing down, please.’ ” A White House aide said that comment was meant as a joke.
Just under 6,200 people attended the rally, according to Andrew Little, a spokesman for the Tulsa Fire Department, who said he received the crowd estimate from the city’s fire marshal. He said that figure doesn’t include staff or people in private suites”.
In short, the rally was a failure.
Trump suffering in Polls
In the next week the New York Times reported on a ‘qualitative poll’ on the temperature of the electorate heading to the upcoming November election.
It seems that former Trump supporters have lost confidence in him on the two big issues of the day – the coronavirus and race relations and policing.
This view is being expressed both nationally and in the ‘swing’ states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina – which propelled Trump to power in 2016 despite that fact that he lost the popular vote.
It appears that on the ‘coronavirus’ issue, the voters see the need to address the ‘health’ issue over the need to address ‘impact of the coronavirus on the economy’.
On the ‘race and policing’ issue, the voters see the need to address the underlying cause of the problem over the need to ‘get tough on protestors’.
It is still 5 months to the election, but is certainly not looking good for Trump at the moment.
The UK
The UK’s handling of the virus has not been good, particularly in England. Like Trump, the Prime Minister Boris Johnson is hell bent on getting the economy going again. The infection rates in the UK are still high. Notwithstanding that, the decision has been made to relax restrictions. This will take place on the 4th of July.
The social distancing rule has been relaxed from two metres to one metre and pubs and bars will be allowed to open.
Learning about the Virus
As the crisis progresses it seems that more is being learned about the virus and its impacts. It seems that in some cases the virus can have long term health impacts.
It would appear that the risk of catching the virus outdoors is low. This is because it is killed by ultraviolet light and the concentrations of the virus are lessened by wind. This appears to a reason for the absence of any evidence of the transmissions resulting from the BLM demonstrations.
However, being part of the large gathering outside does has it risks. I was listening to a health expert being interviewed about the large gatherings on the beaches near Bournemouth on the south coast of England. They pointed out it wasn’t being on beach that was the biggest concern. The biggest concern was related activities. These include the use of public transport to get to and from the beach, where people bought food and drinks and toilet arrangements.
Pubs and Bars are Dangerous Places to Be
A piece in the New York Times has noted the following:
“Everything you love about your neighbourhood bar — the ambience, the crowds, the music, the free-flowing alcohol — makes it the ideal place to catch the coronavirus.
“Except for maybe a hospital with sick patients, I couldn’t imagine too many more risky places than a super cramped indoor bar with poor ventilation and hundreds of people,” said Dr. Asaf Bitton, executive director of Ariadne Labs at Brigham and Women’s Hospital and the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “That to me is a concern from a public health perspective.”
The piece also notes that
Studies also show that the particles we emit during talking and loud speech are potentially more infectious than the larger droplets we expel during a cough or a sneeze. Smaller particles persist in the air for longer time periods before settling, increasing the risk that someone nearby could inhale them. Smaller particles also can travel further into the respiratory tract.
billrider2013 