It is approaching the end of July and the coronavirus crisis appears to the taking a turn for the worse not only in Australia, but across the globe including the USA, South America, India and Africa. Problems also appear to be returning in parts of Europe.
Victoria Back in Lockdown
Following the escape of the virus from a quarantine hotel in Melbourne the virus has now been found in other hotspots across the city.
On 8th of July the lockdown restrictions were re-imposed in Melbourne. Active cases almost tripled in the first nine days of the month, to more than 930. Contact-tracers were almost overwhelmed. Restaurants and bars were closed for another six weeks.
The new wave threatened to undo Australia’s good work containing the virus. Locally acquired cases had been virtually stamped out at the beginning of June, largely because of stay-at-home rules and the quarantining hotels of the few people still allowed into the country.
In the weeks since the lockdown restrictions were re-imposed the number of new cases has varied on a daily basis, however it has always been in triple figures. Today’s number is yet another record, 723.
Real Problems in Care Homes
A major area of concern in Melbourne is the number of cases that are occurring in aged care homes. The virus has been found in many care homes across the city. The tragic consequence of this development is a high mortality among those who become sick. Aged people are very vulnerable to the virus and the unfortunate reality is the many die when they contract covid-19.
The care home issue also has a political dimension. Aged care homes are a Federal Government responsibility. This sector also has a large number of private operators. The sector has a history of poor management and variable standards. It is currently the subject of Royal Commission.
Cases emerging in Sydney and Elsewhere in NSW
As things have been going ‘pear shaped’ in Victoria, cases also started to emerge in NSW, albeit and a much lower rate.
There have been numbers cases found related to specific restaurants and hotels in south western Sydney and in inner city Potts Point. Cases have also been found in Batemans Bay on the south coast.
There is a real concern that the numbers cases in NSW will rise dramatically as they have in Victoria.
Queensland Opens and Closes its Borders
Earlier in the month the borders to Queensland were opened to travellers from all other states except people who have recently been in Victoria. This resulted in a flood of people crossing the border with NSW. Many of these people are ‘grey nomads’ who like to ‘winter’ in the ‘Sunshine State’.
Unfortunately, as a result of the increasing number of cases in NSW, the Queensland government has decided to close the border with NSW again. This will apply from the coming Saturday.
As I write this post, reports are coming in about cases that have been detected in Brisbane. The people concerned are three young women.
The related press report tells us that:
“The Queensland Police Commissioner Katarina Carroll has condemned the actions of two teens who returned to the state after a trip to Melbourne and Sydney and contracted COVID-19 as “deceitful, deceptive and criminal”.
Police are considering laying further charges against one of the teenagers, who has refused to detail her movements since coming back to Brisbane. They have been fined and issued a notice to appear in court”.
It is understood that the women moved widely in Southern Brisbane while infected with the virus. People who have been to places a times where the women visited are being encouraged to be tested for coronavirus.
Cases Exploding parts of the USA
While Australia is experiencing its problems, these pale into insignificance compared to what is happening the USA.
Cases continue to surge in the southern and western states that largely missed the initial phase of the pandemic, but decided to ease restrictions before they had properly got the spread of the virus under control. The worse hit states are Texas, Florida, Arizona and Alabama.
Of course, these states all have Republican governors who have been listening to Trump’s calls to open up their economies. Refer to the paragraph below regarding the ‘mathematics of the spread of the virus’.
Trump is Wearing a Mask
On the issue of masks, the most famous or infamous, ‘non’ mask wearer Donald Trump is now wearing one.
A couple of weeks ago, Trump who has avoided wearing a mask in public even as the coronavirus pandemic spread, donned one at a military medical facility outside Washington where he was to meet with wounded soldiers and front-line health-care workers.
This is somewhat significant in the that it is seemingly a recognition on behalf of Trump that he should listen to advice from the experts. It will also doubtless trouble his supporters, many of whom see the wearing of masks as an infringement of their ‘civil liberties’.
The Mathematics of the Spread
There was a good piece in The Economist last week on the mathematics of the spread of the virus.
There have been investigations into why the spread of the virus the USA has occurred at the same time that it appears to have been brought under control in parts of Europe. A key issue appears to be the fact that the virus spreads following the laws of mathematics.
“The explanation for the pattern of American infections lies in something of central importance to the spread of a virus: geometric progression, such as 1, 2, 4, 8, 16. If one person infects two, two infect four and so on. Unless the rate of infection is driven down by reducing contacts, any geometric increase quickly balloons: 256, 512, 1,024.
This is the lesson of the inventor of chess, who in legend asked, as a reward, for one grain of rice on the first square and twice as many on each successive square. There was not enough rice in India to pay his reward. That is one explanation for America’s explosively rising caseload. With almost 4m infections, the country is on square 23.
Another explanation is that the starting point matters. If you begin a geometric progression at one, the tenth in the sequence is 512. If you begin at three, the tenth iteration is 1,536. American states began easing lockdowns, as it were, at three: their caseloads were three or more times higher than in Europe, in part, argues Jarbas Barbosa of the Pan-American Health Organisation, because most states never had full lockdowns.
Texas had 1,270 new cases on the day its governor said restaurants could re-open: 44 per million. In Georgia, the rate was 95 per million. Disney World reopened the day before Florida announced a record 15,000 new cases in a day. Just as incredibly, in two-thirds of states, infections were rising when governors started to ease lockdowns. By contrast, France, Spain and Italy had 13-17 new cases per million when they began to re-open their economies and numbers were falling fast”.
The above highlights the major problems with this virus. This is its capacity to spread so easily. It is highly infectious and is it very easy to transmit the virus from ‘person to person’. This problem is compounded by the fact that it can be transmitted while people are asymptomatic.
Given this, it would appear that the only effective way to control the virus is to minimise the number of ‘person to person’ contacts. Where contacts do occur, social distancing must be observed where possible. If social distancing is not possible, other risk mitigation measures such as wearing a mask is critical.
The Suppression v Elimination Debate
Following on from the above, it is probably a good time to revisit the ‘The Suppression v Elimination Debate’
In previous posts, I talked about the approach New Zealand is taking with respect to the coronavirus. They are going for total ‘eradication’ or ‘elimination’ of the virus.
This can be contrasted will Australia’s less rigorous approach. Scott Morrison and other members of his government have consistently said that that the best way to combat the coronavirus is to supress it. This will ensure that the health system is no overwhelmed and people can be cared for if they fall sick. He and others claim that it not possible to ‘eliminate’ or ‘eradicate’ the virus. They also claim that ‘lockdowns’ are too costly from an economic perspective.
Supporters of Morrison’s view also claim the a ‘elimination’ strategy would require Australia to completely cut itself off from the rest of the world. They claim that this would entail, banning all international travel, including freight.
Let’s look at other countries. New Zealand is not in lockdown. Nor is Taiwan or Vietnam. These countries have largely returned to ‘normal’. New Zealanders have returned to their workplaces. They are attending Rugby games in their thousands.
The notion that the achievement of ‘elimination’ of the virus requires the complete ‘sealing off’ of borders is simple not correct. Look at Queensland (before the recent developments), South Australia, Tasmania, Western Australia, the Northern Territory in Australia. The virus has been effectively ‘eliminated’ in these states and territories.
The borders to these jurisdictions are not completely closed. Freight is moving across borders and are people with legitimate reasons to travel are able to move interstate.
The same has occurred in countries like Taiwan and New Zealand. Their borders are not completely sealed. All that is required is proper quarantine processes and related measures like effective testing and case tracing.
My Opinion
The objective of the government policy should be the minimisation, and hopefully the elimination, of the instances of covid-19 infections. The acceptance of any level of virus in the community appears to be a flawed strategy.
As the experience in the USA has shown, the spread of the virus is so rapid it simply gets out of control and the only way to combat it is to reimpose ‘lockdown’ restrictions. The notion that there is a binary choice between a ‘health’ objective and an ‘economic’ objective is simply wrong.
Unless the virus is successfully managed from a health perspective, it is not possible to deal with its economic impacts. The health and economic implications of the virus are intertwined.
billrider2013 