It has been a while since I posted about the coronavirus. A lot has been going on, however is some respects it has been ‘much of the same’.
One thing that has not changed in my place of abode. I am still in New Farm in Brisbane.
However, a lot changed last Friday when it was announced that Donald Trump had tested positive to the virus. Within 24 hours he was sent to the Walter Reed Hospital where he is receiving treatment. It is to be hoped that Trump recovers and is not severely damaged by the virus.
Some Comments of Trump’s Illness
The fact that Trump has caught the virus and is reportedly suffering symptoms of Covid-19 is, of course, hugely significant. His critics have pointed out that he has poorly managed the USA’s response to the virus. The USA has had over 7 million cases and suffered over 200 thousand deaths as a result of the virus.
Trump has constantly downplayed the significance of the virus; he has ignored the advice of his own experts and has frequently directly contradicted their advice. This has occurred on several issues, including mask wearing and the use of dubious and untested and therapies. He has told outright lies about the efficacy his administrations response and routinely misuses data to incorrectly claim that the USA is responding to the crisis better than other countries.
This is very all very well documented in the media and I do not have to go on about it.
The fact the Trump has fallen ill to Covid-19 does, of course, cause problems for his supporters in the Republican party, his supporters among voters in the USA and his supporters around the world including Australia. His illness focuses attention of the coronavirus crisis. This is happening just four weeks away from the Presidential elections.
If Trump Recovers, Watch the Spin
It can be expected that Trump will attempt to ‘spin’ the issue in his favour, as will his supporters. If he recovers quickly he and his supporter will say things like this: it is proof that he is strong, the virus isn’t as deadly as people have been saying, his experience is a testament to the ‘greatness’ of the USA and its medical system.
This would be true to some extent. Obese old men are more likely to die or suffer long term effects from the virus than people in any other demographic group apart from those people with serious co-morbidities such as compromised immune systems. If he recovered quickly it would be correctly seen as unusual, especially on a ‘global’ basis. It would a credit to the healthcare he received and his ‘intestinal fortitude’. It would also give some comfort to others in the sense that the likelihood of dying of becoming seriously ill appears to be diminishing.
The Truth
The facts will be ignored in Trump’s ‘spin’ exercise. The fact is that the coronavirus is still out of control in the USA. As I noted above there have been over 7 million reported cases and over 200 thousand deaths. After the initial surge in the number of cases in the first months of the crisis, there was a steady decline in States like New York and California took the appropriate actions including ‘lockdowns’ and mask wearing.
However, in other States like Florida and Texas, the spread of the virus has continued unabated. This is due to the failure to take appropriated actions, like restricting numbers in indoor public places e.g. bars and restaurants and the failure to encourage, let alone enforce the use of masks. The actions, or inactions, that are causing the ongoing spread of the virus has been due to failures in the governance of those states. They have Republican Governors who are following Trump’s ‘lead’.
As winter approaches, the number of cases across the USA is rising. Yesterday, 34,491 new coronavirus cases were reported across the USA over the past week. There has been an average of 43,586 cases per day, an increase of 6 percent from the average two weeks earlier. A positive is that the mortality rate is falling. I talk about that later in the post.
Putting the USA Coronavirus Crisis in Context
The simple fact is the that the USA has not brought the virus under control. Far from it, the crisis is getting worse. One way to look at the issue is to compare what is happening in USA with other comparable countries including Australia.
I have been doing regular analysis on the number of cases and deaths related to the virus and posting it on Facebook. The analysis is based on data from the John Hopkins University in the USA and the Australian Department of Health.
As of the 3rd of October, Australia has had 27,121 cases and has 893 suffered deaths. Adjusting for the differences in population, Australia’s performance can be compared with other countries.
If Australia performed as has the USA, its case tally would be 562,224 (21 times worse) and its death toll would be 16,002 (18 times worse).
If Australia performed as has the UK, its case tally would be 176,334 (7 times worse) and its death toll would be 15,900 (18 times worse).
If Australia performed as has New Zealand, its case tally would be significantly less at 9,777 (64 percent less) and its death toll would be way less at 132 ( 85 percent less) .
If Australia performed as has Taiwan, its case tally would be just 554 (95 percent less) and its death toll would be just 7 (99 percent less) .
It is also worthwhile look at the performance of Australian States with comparable States in the USA. As I noted in my last post, there has been a significant surge in cases in Victoria a result of failures in hotel quarantine. I will write further about that in another post.
Victoria is doing badly compared to the other States and Territories in Australia in terms of both coronavirus cases and related deaths.
However, spare a thought for the people living in Florida and other States in the USA
Look at the table below.
Victoria has experienced over 20 thousand cases and 802 deaths as a result of the virus.
In comparison, New South Wales has experienced only just over 4 thousand cases and only 53 deaths.
The states of California, Texas and Florida are similar to Victoria, NSW and Queensland in terms of urbanisation, spatial design of cities, dwelling types, and per capita wealth.
Florida has a Republican Governor, who Trump thinks is “doing a great job”.
If we look a Florida, we find that it has experienced 711,804 coronavirus cases and 14,554 deaths.
If Victoria performed as well as Florida in terms of managing the virus, its case tally would be 221,697 (i.e. eleven times worse than it currently is). Its death toll would be 4,533 (six times worse than it currently is).
The worst performing State in Australia looks rather good compared to Florida.
If you are in Queensland think about this:
If Queensland performed badly as Florida in terms of managing the virus, its case tally would be 171,010 (i.e. 147 times worse than it currently is). Its death toll would be 3,497 (583 times worse than it currently is).
The Morality Rate is Falling
As the coronavirus has progressed, several trends have emerged. These have included a decline in the morality rates. Put simply that is the number of people that die from Covid-19 compared to the number of people that contract the virus. The decline in mortality rates has been particularly notable in the USA, the UK and other countries with which Australia likes to compare itself.
There would appear to be several reasons for this. These include the following:
You cannot die twice.
Most of the fatalities have been in the ‘very old’ age group. There are now less of those people left to die.
Undetected cases reducing the denominator in the equation.
In the initial phase of the crisis there was limited testing. The determination of the mortality rate was based on estimates of the number of people who had contracted the virus. This was divided into the number of people who died to get the mortality rate.
There is strong evidence to suggest that the estimated number of cases was understated. As a result, the initial death rates were overstated. This in turn overstates the apparent decline in the death rates.
Better treatments.
There is no doubt that doctors know much more about the virus and how to treat the Covid- 19 disease than they did at the start of the crisis This includes the use of steroids to control the immune system reaction and more judicious use of ventilators and other treatments.
‘At risk’ people not getting ill in the first place.
When the coronavirus first hit places like Europe and the UK, people were becoming inflected in droves. Thousands, including the most likely to die, were becoming ill.
Even when restrictions were eased, most older and vulnerable people were able to reduce the chances of being exposed to the virus. This has been by their own actions, e.g. limiting interactions with others or being provided with assistance e.g. better management of aged care homes.
Albeit the death rates as a result of coronavirus is reducing it is still a very serious disease. If you are very old, you are still likely to become very ill and possibly die of you catch it.
Also, people who survive the disease Covid-19 are often left with longer term problems including breathing problems and other chronic conditions. Many are suffering from these conditions for many months later.
A Message for Trump and his Supporters
Trump’s experience in catching the virus highlights an obvious truism. That is this. A surefire way not to die or experience long term chronic problems a result of contracting Convid-19 is to not catch it in the first place.
The failure of the Trump Administration to adequately respond to the coronavirus crisis has meant that millions of USA citizens have ‘unnecessarily’ caught the virus. Many of these people have become seriously ill with Covid-19 and thousands have died.
It is obvious that the USA must reduce the incidence of the coronavirus spreading in its population. It must take the necessary actions immediately. It must look at what other countries, like Australia, China, Taiwan, and New Zealand have done to control the virus.
billrider2013 