Coronavirus 5

We are at the end of another week of the coronavirus crisis.

My ‘permanent’ Accommodation Sorted

 On a personal note, I have sorted out my accommodation here in Brisbane.  It is a one-bedroom unit in the suburb of New Farm on the Brisbane river.  I move in next week.

The process was interesting. I had to provide references. This process  was somewhat different to the norm given that I have effectively been of ‘no fixed abode’ since May of 2012. The letting agent had not experienced this before. Fortunately, I was able for provide suitable referees, one of whom’s wife rightfully claims credit for “my excellent vacuuming skills”.  The comments on my skills caused great amusement in the letting agent’s office.

I am looking forward to a ‘long term’ stay in Brisbane.  It will enable me to do a lot of the reading, some blogging, lots of listening to music. It will also give the opportunity to watch some movies and TV shows. In my peripatetic lifestyle I do not have many opportunities to watch either. Most of my movie watching happens on long-haul flights. I occasionally watch TV when I am in London and in hotel rooms.  I have subscribed to net streaming service and will have NBN broadband in the unit.

Countries Looking Ahead

As I post this, events related to the virus are still moving fast. The USA is increasing its lead in both the number of cases and the death toll.

In the UK, things seem to be stabilising but are still pretty grim.

In parts of Asia, including China and Singapore there is evidence of an emerging ‘second’ wave of inflections.  Things are not looking good in Japan.  

In Europe, some countries are looking to ease restrictions in movements.   

When Does It Stop?

The answer to this is simple.  When people cease to catch the virus and pass it to someone.  At that point, the virus effectively dies out.

The problem is that it is not a simple matter to get to that point. It may take years or decades. Look how long it took the eradicate smallpox. It took centuries, and it required the use of a vaccine.

There is no certainty that a vaccine will ever be developed for this virus. Further, there no certainty that it will be entirely effective, and that sufficient people will be inoculated to completely stop the transmission of the disease.

R0 is Important

The experts are telling us about a  key concept that needs be understood with respect to the spread of the disease.  This concept is ‘R0’.

“Scientists use R0 – the reproduction number – to describe the intensity of an infectious disease outbreak. R0 estimates have been an important part of characterising pandemics or large publicised outbreaks, including the 2003 SARS pandemic, the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic and the 2014 Ebola epidemic in West Africa.

It’s something epidemiologists are racing to nail down about coronavirus.

The formal definition of a disease’s R0 is the number of cases, on average, an infected person will cause during their infectious period.

If R0 is less than 1, the disease will die out in a population, because on average an infectious person will transmit to fewer than one other susceptible person. On the other hand, if R0 is greater than 1, the disease will spread”.

So the trick is to get the R0 for this virus below 1.  Without any intervention it is thought to be certainly above 1 and possibly as high as 2.5.

 Different Strategies Emerging

At the moment, it can’t be assumed that the vaccine will be developed anytime soon.  Certainly, not for at least 12 to 18 months.

In the face of that reality, various strategies seem to be emerging.

The New Zealand Way

The NZ government is going for ‘eradication’. The intension of this strategy is to get rid of the virus as soon as possible. In the absence of a vaccine, this is achieved by rigid ‘lockdown’ protocols.

The first of these is cutting the country off from international travel except for exceptional circumstances e.g. NZ nationals returning home or aircraft crew flying planes carrying essential freight.

The next step is to limit internal movements within the country. People are required to stay in their home cities and towns.

Most crucially, there is strict ‘social distancing’. This involves people staying at home as much as possible. It also means any interaction is limited to family members where possible. Shops, restaurants, and cafes are closed unless they are essential e.g. pharmacies, supermarkets and places selling take way food. People are required to work from home wherever possible.

Another aspect of the ‘social distancing’ is the requirement that people stay apart from each other by at least 2 meters.

As I write this, the strategy appears to be working. There are 1,422 confirmed or probable cases of the virus and these only increased by 13 in last 24 hours. It would appear that the country is on track to achieving zero transmissions.  If that is achieved and sustained, the virus will die out.

Swedish Approach

The Swedish approach is generally thought to be at the other extreme compared to the one New Zealand is taking, at least among rich countries.

The Swedish government have closed senior high schools and banned gatherings of more than 50 people.  They have asked – rather than ordered – people to avoid non-essential travel, work from home.  People over 70 have been asked to stay indoors.  That request also applies to anyone will flu like symptoms.

This has been described as a ‘light-touch’ approach’.

“Polling suggests many Swedes continue to support the government’s strategy, which has entailed urging citizens to take personal responsibility for following physical distancing guidelines rather than strictly enforcing mandatory rules”.

Statistics show roughly half the Swedish workforce is now working from home, public transport usage has fallen by 50% in Stockholm and the capital’s streets are about 70% less busy than usual.  However, peoples are still able to shop, go to restaurants, get haircuts and send children under 16 to school even if a family member is ill.

“However, Sweden has passed the grim milestone of 1,200 coronavirus deaths, far exceeding the tolls of its nearest neighbours”.

Nevertheless, “Anders Tegnell, the country’s chief epidemiologist, has described the Swedish approach as an attempt to ensure “a slow spread of infection and that the health services are not overwhelmed”, arguing that it is important for a part of the population to acquire immunity.

The chief epidemiologist has repeatedly stressed that the world is in uncharted territory with the coronavirus, arguing that while Sweden might have more infections in the short term, it will not face the risk of a huge infection increase that many other countries might face once their strict lockdowns are lifted.

Problems with both Strategies

It seems that the Swedish approach is based on an acceptance that, in the absence of a vaccine, the only way for people to become immune to the virus is to catch it and recover. If sufficient people become immune to the virus, this is thought to be 60-70% of the population, the R0 will drop below 1.  Very quickly following that, the virus will die out.

A big issue will this approach is that many vulnerable people will die if they catch the virus.

Also, it is assumed people who have the recovered from the virus will have immunity to it. Apparently, that is normally what happens with coronaviruses.  However, this is yet to be confirmed in the case of this virus.  

The problem with the New Zealand approach is that people will not gain any immunity to the disease.  It is all very well to eradicate the disease in the New Zealand. However, it is likely that it will still be infecting people around the world for months, if not years to come.

To stay disease free, New Zealand will have to cut itself off from the infected parts of the world until the virus  is eradicated on a global scale.  If infected people were to travel to New Zealand, and were not properly quarantined, they would likely introduce the disease into country. ‘Back to square one’.  

Is there a Middle Road?

Question that appears to be being asked around the world is whether there is a ‘middle road’ between the approaches being taken in New Zealand and Sweden.

It appears the Australia is looking to one.

 The strategy is ‘cautious relaxation’.

Firstly, this requires a sustained drop in transmission rates.  When this occurs some the restriction may be relaxed. For example, schools reopen. Some people, possibly younger people are allowed to return to work.

It will also require strict monitoring to detect any spread of the virus.  This will include widespread testing of people to see if they have the disease, with or without symptoms.  There will also be testing for people with antibodies.  These people will have had the disease and will have recovered.

There is also a need for ‘contact tracing’.  That is a process where anyone who has come into contract will the disease in traced.  They will be tested and if necessary, they will be placed into isolation.

There is discussion going about the possible use of mobile phone apps to assist in this ‘contact tracing’ process.  This technology has been used in Singapore and South Korea.  There definitely privacy and data security concerns with this approach.  It does have ‘Big Brother’ overtones.

Whatever approach Australia decides to take,  social distancing and washing of hands will stay. They are part of our new life, along with extremely limited overseas travel until a vaccine is developed and used globally.

A shemozzle in the USA

As you would expect, things are not going well in the USA.

The reason for this of course, their President. 

He continues to get worse.   It pains me to even think about.  I will keep it brief.

On the 16th of April, the White House issued ‘Coronavirus Guidelines for America’.  They are contained in a 16 page document.  This far to big a document for Trump to read, let alone understand.

Essentially, it puts the onus of the State Governors to manage the way out of the current crisis.  For example, they are to decide when ‘lockdown’ restrictions are to be lifted.  The States will also be responsible for managing risk mitigation measures such as testing.

Around the time that the guidelines were issued, demonstrations began in certain States including Michigan, Minnesota and Virginia demanding the ‘social distancing’ restrictions be lifted.   Trump sent out tweets in support of these protests.  These States have Democrat Governors.  The protestors were obviously ‘right wingers’.

The simple fact is that the Governors of  those states were following the White House Guidelines.

Trump is encouraging people to disobey his own guidelines.   

Explanation of R0

https://theconversation.com/r0-how-scientists-quantify-the-intensity-of-an-outbreak-like-coronavirus-and-predict-the-pandemics-spread-130777

NZ Coronavirus Statistics

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases

Swedish Approach

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/sweden-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-1000

ANU Professor’s View

Laura Tingle 18th April

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-18/coronavirus-threat-slows-pm-hints-return-to-policy-ideology/12159628?fbclid=IwAR3x8ekYJ7ow8V_SH1u71jewiNLp4UM37GouVnXgga-SsTWyWIAVe87mP0Q

Paul Kelly 18th April

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/coronavirus-the-keys-to-restart-the-nations-engine/news-story/938d032b6f981643d095338d1186a43f

White House Guidelines 16th April

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/coronavirus-guidelines-america/

Trump inciting Disobedience to Governors following His Guidelines

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/18/opinions/trump-is-playing-with-fire-ghitis/index.html?fbclid=IwAR3_onlY50YP3zmJ5HrGFWgyVvbOCI0JDfBgiOH8RSsE9hvgsBhmp7hYQds

Coronavirus 4

It now Easter Monday and we at the start of another week of living with the impact the coronavirus.

Case Numbers and Death Toll

As I write this post, the USA is on the top of the table for both the number of cases and the number of deaths as a result of the coronavirus. 

Things seem to be stabilising in parts of Europe with the number of daily deaths falling in Italy and in Spain.  It seems that things are still getting worse in the UK. 

In China, some the restrictions that had been in place in Hubei Province where the virus started have been eased.

Here in Australia, the ‘social distancing’ and travel restrictions appear to be working.  The number of cases appears to have stabilised and there are very few deaths.

 More importantly, the vast majority of cases, and nearly all of the deaths, are related to people that caught the disease overseas.  There have been few ‘community’ transmissions.  That is, someone catches the disease from someone who also caught the disease within Australia.

Politicians’ Performances

The worst performing politician appears to the Brazilian President, Jair Bolsonaro.  He is in total denial.  This is of course a problem for the people of Brazil and its immediate neighbours.  However, this cannot be said for what is happening in the USA.

Trump’s Performance in the White House ‘Briefings’  

I have taken to watching the White House Briefings on the virus.  They start in the mornings AEST.  They can be seen on Fox News over the internet.  These briefings are fascinating.

The performances of the various participants are interesting to watch.

Trump’s performances are well documented. He struggles to read off his notes. When he is reading, he appears to not even understand what has been written for him.

He frequently goes ‘off script’ with ad lib comments that are often totally unrelated to the words that have been prepared for him to read. Frequently his own words are meaningless platitudes e.g. “we are doing a great job”.  Often he spouts outright drivel “a lot of people are dying who have never died before”.

When he is asked a question, he never responds with anything sensible. He frequently attacks the journalist asking the question. He almost invariably talks about ‘himself’, always in glowing terms. This frequently involves a demonstrable lie e.g. “I have always said this was going to be pandemic”.

Then there is vice president Pence and other Trump appointees e.g. Cabinet members. These people always begin their remarks by thanking “the president for his great leadership”. They always refer to decisions and initiatives they are responsible for as “the president’s decision” or something they are doing something at “the president’s direction”.

These performances are the epitome of what is to be a sycophant.

Fortunately, there is a third group. These are the real experts. They include Dr Anthony Fauci and Dr Deborah Birx.

These people are proving to be the consummate professionals. Their explanations are precise and considered. They are emphasising the importance of data and the use of analysis in decision making.

These people are clearly highly intelligent, competent and trustworthy.

The contrast between the doctors and Trump is profound. Trump is a moron. He is incompetent. He cannot be trusted.

Boris Johnson

On the 26th of March it was announced that the UK Prime Minister had contracted the virus and was in isolation in number 10. On the 5th of April he was admitted to St Thomas’s hospital.   The next day he moved into the intensive care unit (ICU).

This was all very serious stuff.  One of the interesting aspects of was that, no one took over as ‘acting’ Prime Minister in the absence of Johnson from Number 10.  There is no formal position of Deputy Prime Minister in the UK political system. There have been Deputy Prime Ministers in the past.  For example, during the period of the Conservative and Lib Dem Coalition government under David Cameron.

Under this government there is no such role.  Dominic Raab who is a bit of a dickhead and definitely a lightweight is ‘deputising for Johnson.

As expected, most people including members of the Opposition expressed concern for the plight of the Prime Minister and wished him a speedy recovery.  There was very little said about what a ‘dick’ he had been at the start of the crisis in the UK.

This included boasting about the fact that he had visited a hospital which people with the virus were being treated and that he has “shaken hands with members of the public and staff at the hospital”.

Fortunately, Johnson recovered enough to be taken out the ICU and was returned to a normal ward.  

Media Not Helping

I have posted before about Fox News’s disgraceful performance at the start of the crisis in the USA.  It ‘personalities’ downplayed the significance of the crisis.  This of course, played a significant role in how Trump reacted to the crisis and the things he has said.  This included claiming in an interview with Sean Hannity on the 24th of March that he expected that the “churches could be full at Easter”.

One the most bizarre lines that Fox News is taking is its support for the use of a drug called hydroxychloroquine as a possible cure for the virus.

Trump has picked up on this and has been promoting its use himself.  The drug was originally developed as a treatment for malaria.  It has ceased to be widely used for this purpose but is now used for other maladies including Lupus.  There has been some suggestion that it ‘may’ relieve the symptoms of the coronavirus and possibly accelerate recovery from the disease.

The USA health officials, including Dr Fauci have noted that the reports on the possible benefits of the use of the drug are only anecdotal.  He has further stated that proper clinical trails need to be undertaken.  It seems that Fox News and other right-wingers are promoting the use of hydroxychloroquine as part of the ‘contrary’ view to the accepted science.

A very unfortunate development occurred on the 2nd of April  when Dr Fauci was assigned security protection in response to threats from ‘right-wingers’. 

Conservatives Discover the Value of Big Government

There is one consistent theme that has emerged across most countries in the face of the coronavirus crisis.

That is this:

When there is a serious problem, people ask the government for help.

The irony is that many of the governments to whom people are turning are ‘conservative’ governments. Those governments are composed of parties that are not keen on governments having a role in their countries at all.

The obvious example is the USA.  The Republicans hate ‘government’.  They hate regulation. They want to deregulate.  In the context of this crisis they despise ‘socialised’ healthcare.  Remember that in their lexicon, ‘socialised’ is synonymous with ‘evil’.

In the UK, the Conservatives have presided over a decade of austerity wherein government expenditure was slashed.

In Australia, the coalition government that was initially ‘led’ by Tony Abbott (Australia’s leading living ‘dickhead’).   The LNP has been banging on about the need to get ‘back in black for a decade’.

Now that there is a crisis, everyone is turning to the government for help. They are getting it. The purse strings have been cut.

In the UK, if people are left unemployed as a result of the virus, they are being guaranteed up to 80% of the medium income. In Australia, similar government support is promised. In the USA, trillions have been promised.  However, no one really knows who will get it and why.

‘Experts’ Speculate on What will Happen Next

Over this Easter weekend there is a lot of speculation as to what will happen next.

It would appear that two camps are emerging.

To make it simple lets talk about Australia.  Australia’s situation is somewhat simple.  We have two clear choices.  This is because we are an island.  We can effectively close the country off from the rest of the world when it comes the movement of people.  There will be some but very few exceptions.

Australia is also unique in that there the instances of ‘community’ transmission of the virus have virtually ceased

These are the options:

Australia can effectively close itself off from the rest if the world

Under this scenario, there will be no threat of virus coming into the country.  Those currently in the country with the virus will get better or die.  The ‘social distancing’ regulations will mean that there are no more ‘community’ transmissions.

There will be very few people allowed into the country.  They will be returning Australian nationals and essential visitors e.g. diplomats and ex pat business people etc.

The result of this is that the virus will die out in Australia.

The downside will be that the tourism and educational sectors that rely on a constant stream of foreign visitors will be severely impacted.    

This arrangement will continue until the pandemic across the rest of the world in under control.  That will likely require the development and widespread use of a vaccine.  This may not happen for one year, eighteen months or possibly two years. In fact a vaccine may never be developed for this virus.

The other option is ‘let it rip’ with some controls

Under this scenario, it is accepted that the virus spreads through the community until we have ‘herd immunity.  That is when around sixty to seventy percent of the population have contracted the virus and are therefore immune to further infections.

There are issues with this.  The first is that it is assumed that once you have recovered from the disease, you can’t pass it to anyone else.  This appear to be likely.  The second is that once you have had the disease, you have enough antibodies that prevent you from getting it again, at least for a year or more.

The third issue is that a lot of people will get sick.  Many of these will probably get very ill.  They are the old and those with underlying medical issues like cancer and heart issues. Without hospital treatment including the use of ventilators, they will die.

It is possible that under this scenario the hospital system will be overwhelmed, and thousands will die.

An interesting week ahead

The next week will be interesting.  Clearly, governments around the world are considering various options on what to do next.

Naturally, attention will focus on our own governments – Federal, State and Territories.

However, the world will be looking at what happens in the USA. 

Unfortunately, what their mixture of what is a ‘dark comedy’ and horror show is certain to continue.

Personal Note

I am still in the Brisbane YHA.  It is not idea but it is ok.  I am getting plenty of exercise with walks and rides on the Brompton. 

I have found a flat in New Farm and plan to take residence there late next week.

Links

Fox News on Hydroxychloroqine 

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/sean-hannity-gov-cuomo-stop-denying-new-yorkers-hydroxychloroquine

Fox News Changing Tune

Brazilian President in Denial

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-04-09/brazils-president-refuses-to-admit-that-coronavirus-poses-a-real-threat-hes

Coronavirus 3

There have been a number of significant developments since my last post.

Tightening Border Controls

In Australia, as of the 25th of March, all Australian citizens and permanent residents of other nationalities were restricted from travelling into the country from overseas. It was also announced that from 23.59 pm on the 28th of March anyone entering Australia will be required quarantine themselves for 14 days.

Within Australia, restrictions on cross border movements between States are place with the exception of movements between NSW and Victoria.

High Profile Victims

On the 25th  of March, it was announced that Prince Charles had tested positive for the virus. On the 27th of March it was announced that the British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson had also tested positive to the virus.  It was also announced that Johnson would continue in this role of Prime Minister.

Poor Behaviour and Management in Australia

There have been some examples of some very poor behaviour and management in Australia in the face of the crisis.

There have been reports of Backpackers continuing to ignore the ‘social distancing’ guidelines.  This has particularly been the case in the Eastern Suburbs of Sydney, particularly in Bondi. 

I have experience an example of this type of behaviour  here in my hostel in Brisbane.  A group of German backpackers ignored those guidelines and held a party in their 6 bed room.  The rule is that there is a maximum of 2 people in any one room.  I understand there were over 10 people at this ‘party’.  Fortunately, management have taken the necessary action.

An example of very poor management was the control passengers arriving at the Sydney International Airport.  The people in the lines waiting to go through immigration and customs were crowded together.  They were obviously not observing the ‘physical separation’ rules.  This is of course is a worry.

What was also a worry was the reaction of the Australian Border Force (ABF) officials.  A spokesman said that the control of the lines was not the responsibility of the ABF. The Minister in charge of the ABF is Peter Dutton.  Anyone who has had any experience with the officers of the ABF will  likely haved noticed that it has a certain ‘culture’.  I suspect that having Dutton as its Minister does not help.

‘Stimulus’ Packages

As the crisis progresses, the governments around that world are trying to address the economic impact it is causing.  Obviously, the economic impacts are huge and unprecedented in living memory.  Already it is looking like the Great Depression of the 1930’s.

The governments are announcing ‘stimulus packages’.  These are taking various forms, but all involve the government’s throwing money at the economy. Examples include; cash payments to individuals, salary and wage support to businesses  for people who would otherwise have lost their job, access to unemployment benefits for those people that have lost their jobs, deferral of businesses taxes for those companies who are unable to operate in the current climate.

The costs of these packages are running in to billions of dollars, pounds and euros etc.  In the case of the USA the cost is already running into the Trillions of dollars.

I think the use of the word ‘Stimulus’ is misleading.  Where these packages have been used before, for example in the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the circumstances were different.

In the GFC, consumers lost confidence and stopped consuming.  Goods and services were still available to be consumed and the challenge was to get consumers spending again.  The Labor Government in Australia implemented a significant ‘stimulus‘package.  The government was criticised for spending too much.  However, no one knows if it was too much.

One thing this is certain, Australia did not fall into a recession and the government avoided to the costs of significant a rise in unemployment with the attendant welfare expenditure and a drop in income tax and other tax revenue.

This situation is significantly different to the GFC.

The obvious big difference is that the ‘supply’ side of the economy was still in place in the GFC.  In this case that ‘supply’ side has been severely impacted.  Clearly, the production of some physical goods have been impacted.  For example, cars made in Italy.

However, the big impact is this crisis,  is on services.  For most rich economies, the ‘services’ sector is the largest part of the economy.  Industries like tourism and hospitality, entertainment and education are huge.   These industries have largely been ‘shutdown’.  It doesn’t matter how much money the government pumps into the economy, people are not going to buy services that are simply not on offer.

No one is going to restaurants.  No one is taking flights to holiday destinations. No one is going to the cinemas or theatres. No one id going to sporting events.  No one will be going to the 2020 Olympics. 

It doesn’t matter how much the governments pump into their economies, these industries are not going to recover until the virus is brought under control.

Politicians Found Wanting

Of no one will ever take the ‘dickhead’ crown off Donald J Trump.

However, in the lower league of Australian politics, Senator Mathias Corman aka the ‘Belgium Waffle’ is climbing up the ladder.

Just believe me.  Don’t even both to watch his performance on the ABC’s Insiders program this morning.

Coronavirus 2

I am continuing my blog on the coronavirus.

First few Days in Brisbane

My first day in Brisbane was Thursday the 18th of March.  I was staying at the Brisbane YHA.  I realised that this was probably not best place to be.  One obvious problem was that I could not get a private room and I was sharing a 3-person room with another bloke. 

The hostel was fairly full.  Many were oversea backpackers.  A lot of these were hitting the phones and clearly trying to organise travel home.

As I moved through the main shopping centre in the city, the place appeared to be normal. 

I did have an urgent task to perform.  I needed to top up my supply of Glaucoma eye drops.  When I was in Grafton, I had bought a bottle at a Ramsay Pharmacy.  I was shocked to find that they had expired.  When I returned the drops, the Pharmacist was clearly embarrassed.  She took back the drops and returned the original repeat script. I informed Pharmacist that I would making a complaint about what had happened.  I registered my complaint on the Ramsay Heath Services website.

When I arrived in Brisbane, I told one of my ‘Doctor cousins’ what had happen.  This cousin has an extremely low opinion of the ‘Chemist Industry’.  “They are being paid ridiculous amounts of money for simply sticking labels on bottles”.  You should really get stuck into that person”.  He gave me the details of the government and professional bodies to whom I report the incident.   

Shortly after that conversation, I received a call from a woman in the Ramsay Head Office. She thanked me for the reporting what had happened to me and said the “it was totally unacceptable, and that appropriate action has been taken”.   I won’t bore you with the rest of the conversation.   The upshot was that I decided the spare the Ramsay and the pharmacist the pain of dealing with a formal complaint the lodged with the authorities.  I was also mindful that the authorities were already having to deal with more significant issues related to the coronavirus.  

Things Start to Tighten Up

Over the weekend, further reports were coming out of Italy and Spain about the spread of the virus of the rising death toll.

Not much changed in Brisbane at all.  The shops, restaurants and pubs were essentially operating as normal.

The National Cabinet, which comprises the Prime Minister the leaders of the States and Territories met on Sunday afternoon.

After the meeting, the Prime Minister announced the implementation of ‘social distancing’ rules and the numbers of people that could be in indoor areas such as restaurants, pubs etc at any one time would be reduced.   There was a confused message regarding the operation schools.  There was obviously a disagreement  between the Federal Government and the States of NSW and Victoria on several issues including the operation of schools.

Watching the USA

 As the new week started, my and a lot of other peoples’ attention also turned to what was happening in the USA.  In particular, people were looking to what Donald Trump was saying a doing.

By this stage there were already a significant number of cases in the USA.   This was despite the fact that the USA has stopped travel from China at the end of January and in the previous week, they had stopped travel from Europe.

The White House was now holding daily briefings on the crisis.  These were being broadcasted live on TV and internet streaming.  I started watching them on the New York Times website.

Everyone knows how Trump has reacted to the crisis.  He downplayed it, he claimed that it would be all over when the weather warmed up…etc..etc.

The people ‘on the stage’ at the briefings were Trump, Vice President Pence who is the leader of the Coronavirus Taskforce and couple or more relevant ‘experts’ e.g  health experts, representative of the Armed Forces, logistics advisors etc.

It was interesting watching his performance in the briefings.  Naturally he took centre stage.  He was in control of the podium and decided who could speak.  This included answering questions that were explicitly directed at other people.

The media often show short clips of the briefings.   These did not convey what actually happens and how appalling  Trump is.

I give one example:

A reported asked the logistics advisor what the Federal government could do to assist those States that were experiencing shortages of essential medical supplies.

Trump stepped in and spoke for about 5 minutes.  During this rambling rant, he mentioned “the wall between the USA and Mexico”.  He said it was “a great wall and he knew about construction because he ran a great construction business”.  

Another issue that emerged in these days was the possible use of a drug that used for the treatment of malaria and other illnesses.  It was being touted a  as possible cure for the virus.  This would to be highly unlikely, however Trump promoted the idea.

Click on the link below to the Fox News take of the media coverage of this issue.

Stage Two Implemented

On Tuesday the 24th of March, the National Cabinet met again and decided that Australis would move to ‘stage two’ of restrictions. These were to apply from midnight on Wednesday.

These restrictions meant that all restaurants, clubs and pubs must close except for the sale of take away foods and drinks.  Cinemas and other places where people gather were  to close completely.

The Queensland government also announced that its border with NSW was also to close with the limited exemptions.  This had an impact on me personally as I was due to travelled to Sydney for an appointment with my eye doctor.  In communications with the doctor I was advised that the appointment was not ‘essential’ in the context of what was going on and that other arrangements could put in place.

Holed up in a Hostel    

By this time, I had changed rooms in the hostel.  My ‘Doctor cousins’ had all kindly offered me accommodation in their houses.  They are ‘empty nesters’.   However, I decided not to impose on them at this time.  The hostel isn’t a bad option by any means I have a room with nice view, an en suite bathroom and I can get in and out of the place without travelling in lift or stairway.  There is a supermarket nearby and there a plenty of restaurants  and cafes offering take away food in the vicinity.  

Looks like Stage 3 is On the Way

As I write this post its looks as though Australia will be moving to Stage 3 restrictions.

This has already happened in the UK.

It is also being reported the USA has the highest number of cases, more than China and Italy.

Life goes On

As the crisis rolls on, so does ‘life’.

Unfortunately a mate has lost his father a couple of days ago.  Another’s mother has suffered a stroke and a bad fall and required an emergency operation.

Another friend became a grandmother for the first time.  She is understandably “beside herself with joy”.

An Interesting Take on Trump’s Thought Processes

https://gen.medium.com/we-wish-to-inform-you-that-your-death-is-highly-profitable-22c73744055c

White House Briefings

Another Example of Fox News’s Take on Things

The ‘malaria drug’ issue.

Coronavirus 1

I have decided to blog about the coronavirus.

Everyone knows that it started in Hubei Province in China sometime in December 2019 and as I post this, it is a ‘pandemic’ and is spreading at various rates in every country in the world.

Watching Question Time on the 4th of March

I had travelled to Canberra on the 3rd of March having spent the previous two months or so travelling in South Australia and Victoria.

By the time I arrived in Canberra the coronavirus was already the main news item.  It had surpassed the ‘Sports Rorts’ scandal.  On Tuesday I had lunch with a group of very good and long-time friends.  We greeted each other without the usual hugs and handshakes.

The next day I went to Parliament House.  While I was there, I attended question time.  I noted that virtually all of the questions from the government members related to the coronavirus. These ‘Dorothy Dixers’ were directed to the Prime Minister and the relevant Ministers.  They were worded in the usual manner: “Will the Minister informed that House of the measures the government is taking to protect the Australian people from  potential impact of the spread of the coronavirus?”

The answers were as you would be expected.  They talked about what a great job the government had done in managing the country. In particular, the economy. How the budget was in surplus following the ‘disaster’ of the Labor years and that all the necessary planning for dealing with possible impact of the coronavirus was in place.

One notable absentee from the House was Peter Dutton.  He is the Minister for Home Affairs with a very wide portfolio including Border Security that encompasses what used to be known as Immigration.

Reports from China

As the week progressed, reports were coming out of China that the city of Huhan was in total lockdown as the virus spread and that the death toll was rising significantly.

Travel restrictions were being applied across China in an effort to restrict the spread of the virus.

A Friend in Japan

As I was travelling around since January, I was in periodic contact with a mate who was travelling in Japan.

Japan was one of the first countries outside of China to detect any cases of the virus.  A great deal of media attention was being given to a cruise ship that had passengers that had been tested positive for the virus. They and the rest of the passengers and crew were being prevented from landing in Japan.

My mate was providing reports of what he was seeing as he continued his travels around the country.  He was observing that places “that were usually packed with tourists were unusually quiet”.

Into Sydney

I stayed in Canberra until the 10th of March before catching the train to Sydney.

By this time the coronavirus was well and truly the major news story.  Notwithstanding that, life in Sydney appeared to be normal.  The only thing that was obviously different was panic buying of toilet paper.   

Also, by this time reports were coming out of the USA and Europe that cases of the virus were being detected.  More significantly, a major outbreak has been detected in South Korea and a whole city had been effectively shut down.

We were also getting reports from the USA regarding Donald Trump’s reaction to the emerging crisis.  As to be expected his messages were confused and contradictory.  He was saying things like ‘it is not as bad as the flu’, ‘it will all be over when the weather warms up in April’ and ‘there is nothing to really worry about because the USA has the greatest health system in the world’ etc.  

Check out the link to Trump’s Timeline below.

Another notable feature of what was happening in the USA was that Fox News was blaming the Democrats and the ‘liberal’ media for overstating the significance of the virus in “an attempt to discredit Trump”.  This themes  was picked up by the right-wing politicians in Australia like Graig Kelly the member for Hughes and ‘shock jocks’ like Alan Jones.  They were peddling the idea that the virus was much less of threat than the flu.

Checkout the link below to the Fox News coverage.

A Worldwide Pandemic Declared 

On the 11th of March, the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared that the coronavirus was a ‘Pandemic’. 

Things were clearly getting serious.  Northern Italy was in a state of shut down.  There were reports of the virus spreading rapidly through other parts of Europe and in the UK.

On the same day in a bizarre statement from the White House Donald Trump announced that he was closing the US borders to travellers and goods from Europe.  This did not apply to the UK.  A series of corrections and ‘clarifications’ were issued by the Administration after the speech.  These included that the restrictions only applied to people, not goods.  Trump had misread the autocue.

Following the speech, the US stock market dropped dramatically.  Stock markets around the world including Australia’s followed suit.  The Australian dollar fell dramatically.      

Restrictions start to Apply

As the end of week approached, announcements were being made in various parts of the world with respect to restrictions on the movement of people within countries and the cancelation of events that involve gatherings of people.

The UK soccer (football) matches were cancelled and cinemas and theatres were closed.

In Australia, similar restrictions were foreshadowed with the expectation that they would commence at the start of the next week.

Somewhat curiously, or maybe not, Scott Morrison announced that he was planning to “go to the footy” on the weekend and encouraged people to go to Church.  He said his church would be open. Morrison is a Pentecostalist.

The Hillsong Church of which Morrison was a member was having a major event over the coming weekend.

As it turned out, Morrison didn’t go to the Sharks ‘footy’ game.  It is not known if he went to church to ‘sing and clap’.

However, the Hillsong Church event did go ahead with hundreds of attendees.  It was subsequently reported that attendees of that event tested positive for the coronavirus.    

Friday Night and the Weekend

Sydney is famous for its ‘Friday Night’ drinks, particularly in the CBD.  The office workers really let of steam at the end of the week.  They pack the numerous pubs and bars in the CBD and adjacent areas including The Rocks and Darling Harbour.

I spent most of my working life in Sydney and most of that working in the CBD.

When I return to Sydney, I always catch up with mates with whom I have enjoyed a ‘Friday Night’ drink over the years.

On this particular night, the ‘drinking gang’ totalled three.  My mate, who mentioned above was travelling in Japan, was not able to join us.  He was in ‘self-quarantine’ and was looking to go to St Vincent’s Hospital the next morning to be tested for the virus.

The other two of the ‘three’ decided that the most appropriate place to go was the Customs Bar off Bridge St.  It is largely outdoor.  It was very quiet.  We had three beers and left.

The news that next morning was not good.  The virus was spreading rapidly in Italy and across Europe.  The death toll was rising.

People not Physical Distancing Themselves  

The next day was the commencement of St Patricks day celebrations albeit the day wasn’t until the next Tuesday.  St Patricks Day is a big thing in The Rocks. I used to work for the organisation that owns all of the pubs in The Rocks and assists in promoting the precinct as place to celebrate this day.   This  includes allowing celebrations to take place in the small park between George St and Circular Quay.  I noted that tents and other temporary structures were in place in readiness for the celebrations.

As it turned out, the St Patricks Day celebrations in The Rocks were severely curtailed.  Nothing happened in the park.  However, this didn’t stop people celebrating the pubs.  A good example was The Fortune of War.

 Check out the video in the Flickr Link.

Heading North

On the next Tuesday I left Sydney on the train to Grafton.

It is a long trip.  The train was essentially full.

I need to make one comment about the trip. I was mindful of the need to following the advice about washing your hands frequently. I think it was around the six hour mark that I found that the soap in the toilets had run out.  I informed a staff member of the train.  I was told, “if we have run out, we have run out”.  He further stated “it doesn’t normally run out so quickly”.

Just think about that.

In Grafton

My accommodations in Grafton was The Crown Hotel of the banks of the Clarence River.  It is a classic Australian ‘country’ pub.

I decided to have a meal at the Roches Hotel around the corner.  I have eaten there before as it has very good meals.

As I was eating my meal, I overheard a conservation at the table next to be me. I was between a group of four couples.  All of the blokes were in their sixties or above. Two of the women, I assume wives, were much younger and seemed be speaking with Russian accents.  I digress.

One of the blokes was obviously a ‘Stock and Station’ Agent.  Who remembers the Quiney character in the TV series Bellbird on the ABC in the 70’s?  This bloke was like him.

At some point in the conversation he started to talk about a ‘secret’ drug that was going to “cure people with this virus thing”.  It had been “developed in the US and hardly anyone knew about”.  His audience seem very impressed and asked some questions.  I can’t recall one of the questions being, “if I is a ‘secret’, how do you know about?

In hindsight it would appear that the ‘secret’ drug is the ‘malaria’ drug that Trump has been banging on about.

On to Brisbane

 I only stayed one night in Grafton.

When I went down to the reception to check out, I heard a very animated discussion going on in the office.  It appeared to be between the owner and a staff member. The upshot was that the staff member was upset that the operations of the hotel were likely to change over the coming days.

The response of the owner was, “please go away, I have important calls to make”.  He was very calm and controlled.

In the afternoon I caught a very empty train to Casino and the connecting bus to Brisbane.

I check into the Brisbane City YHA.

Later I headed out for the meal.  All the nearby pubs and restaurants were operating as normal.

Links

Trump’s Timeline

Fox News

Flick Links

Sydney

Check the video of the people celebrating St Patricks Day in the Fortune of War Hotel

https://flic.kr/s/aHsmMaJepK